| |
Prediction of Adult Height During Adolescence
(For males and females aged 8 to 16)
The objective of this growth utility program is to predict a child's adult
stature at full maturity from measurements taken during adolescence (8 to 16 years of age). There has long been an interest and curiosity in
being able to predict the likely adult height of a child. However one of the
hurdles in the prediction of adult height is accounting for an individual's
biological maturity at the time of measurement. We know that early maturing
individuals are closer to their adult height than average and late maturing
individuals of the same chronological age. We also know that at peak height
velocity (PHV) a child has reached 92% of their adult stature. Our prediction
of adult height is based on both the assessment of the child's current biological
maturity and the amount of growth remaining until full maturity.1
To predict adult height the following variables are required: gender, date
of birth, date of measurement, height, sitting height and weight. The first
step in the prediction is to predict the child's years from age at PHV. Using
APHV the child is classified as an early, average or late maturer. Finally
an estimate of the amount of growth remaining until adult height is calculated
(the cumulative height value). Adult height is predicted by adding the child's
height at test to their predicted cumulative height value. Accuracy of the
measurements is of paramount importance, as any errors especially in sitting
height will dramatically alter the precision of the prediction. Detailed description
of the measurement protocols can be found here
1. Sherar, L.B., Mirwald, R.L., Baxter-Jones, A.D.G., Thomas, M. 2005. Prediction
of adult height using maturity based cumulative height velocity curves. Journal
of Pediatrics. 14:508-514
Disclaimers:
This utility is designed for use in pediatric populations between the
chronological age range of 8 to 16 in females and 9 to 18 in males and a maturity
age range of -4 to + 4 years from peak height velocity. Any predictions outside
these age ranges will be associated with a degree of error in the prediction and
therefore will not be calculated.
Accuracy of the measurements input into the predictions is of paramount
importance, especially for the variable sitting height. Large measurement error
will be associated with a degree of error in the prediction. (For a description of measurements methods, please see the Measurements Protocol page.)
Prediction of age at peak height velocity is only appropriate prior to
the event and two years after the event. In boys this is roughly between 12
and 16 years and for girls 9 to 13 years. The further away from the event the
greater the error in the prediction.
Predictive equations for age at peak height velocity and adult height
are based on a normal, white Caucasian population. Predictions in other races
may be associated with a degree of error in the prediction.
Prediction of Bone Mineral Content (BMC) at the four bone sites provides
specific racial equations (Caucasian, Asian, Black and Hispanic) for a Hologic
QDR-4500 instrument only.
This utility will only work if the 'Date of Test' is earlier than the current
date and time in the Central/Mountain time zone. The current date and time is 20-Nov-09,
11:21 PM
|
